
Eigenrac Regional Intelligence Reporting and Analysis
Security Insights – Libya December 2024
KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN LIBYA THIS WEEK
Clashes at Zawiya impact oil refinery operations and civilian safety: On 15 December, clashes between the group of Muhammad Kashlaf, known as “Al-Qasab,” and a group from the Al-Shurafa tribe near the Zawiya Refinery severely damaged several tanks, igniting fires and leading the National Oil Corporation to declare a state of force majeure and maximum emergency. The fighting also caused widespread damage to homes and resulted in at least one death and 15 injuries. Later, firefighting teams contained the fires and leaks, allowing the refinery to stabilize and fuel supplies to resume.
Russia escalates military transfers from Syria to Libya: Russian cargo planes have transported S-400 and S-300 air defense systems and radars from Syria’s Hmeimim air base to eastern Libya, according to Syrian and American officials. Since 11 December, civilian-registered Russian Il-76TD aircraft have conducted near-daily flights from Russia via Turkey to Libya’s Al-Khadim air base, with some continuing to Mali. Reports also indicate Russian warships en route to Tobruk, potentially to support facility development for naval operations. The US has criticized these actions as violations of the UN arms embargo.
Risk Categories
Conflict: High Crime: High Health and Medical: Medium Kidnap and Ransom: High Personal Safety: High Natural and Environment: High Political Overview: High Terrorism: Medium Unrest: Medium
UN warns of impunity and human rights violations in Libya: In a 16 December UNSC session, Acting SRSG Stephanie Koury highlighted ongoing arbitrary arrests, detentions, and custodial deaths in Libya, urging authorities to grant UNSMIL unrestricted access to detention centers. Libya Crimes Watch condemned systematic abuses by security agencies and military groups, linking impunity to prolonged conflict and calling for an independent mechanism to investigate violations. The UN Secretary General’s report noted widespread due process violations and enforced disappearances, fostering a climate of fear and obstructing transitional justice efforts.
Recorded Instances of Political Violence and Civil Unrest
The increased Russian military transfers from Syria to Libya signify a strategic realignment for Russia, driven by the need to maintain its influence in the Mediterranean and Africa. With approximately 1,000 personnel, including former Syrian soldiers, and advanced equipment like the S-400 air defense system and attack helicopters being relocated, Russia aims to establish a strong military presence in Libya, particularly through its alliance with the Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar. This move is likely to enhance Russia’s military capabilities in the region, allowing it to project influence along NATO’s southern border and exert pressure on European immigration routes and energy channels. In the near term, this shift will bolster Russia’s position, but in the medium to long term, it is likely to pose logistical, security, and community support challenges.
The fighting between armed groups, including tribal factions and militias with political allegiances, threatens to entrench the existing divisions, leading to further fragmentation of control across the region and countrywide. These clashes also raise concerns about the deterioration of the security environment in urban areas, with increased risks of civilian casualties, displacement, and the spread of violence into neighboring towns. The continued involvement of militia forces in day-to-day governance and their access to strategic assets, like energy resources, complicate efforts to stabilize Libya politically and economically. The Zawiya incident signals that unless these security issues are addressed, militia-driven violence will remain a persistent destabilizing force, hindering any sustainable peace process or rule of law establishment…