
Eigenrac Regional Intelligence Reporting and Analysis
Security Insights – Mozambique 2nd Jan 2025
KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN MOZAMBIQUE THIS WEEK
Over 175 killed in escalating post-election violence: Mozambique saw a significant rise in casualties this week, with at least 175 people killed during protests following the contested elections. Security forces are against
Mondlane announces pause in protests: Key opposition figure Mondlane announced a brief halt to nationwide protests, citing the need to allow humanitarian organizations and international bodies to assess the state of human rights in Mozambique, while reassessing strategies amid intensifying crackdowns. While the pause may bring temporary calm, the underlying grievances regarding the election results remain unresolved, leaving a high likelihood of resumed unrest in the near term.
Mass prison break raises security concerns: Approximately 6,000 inmates escaped from Maputo Central Prison following a violent riot linked to the ongoing unrest. The mass breakout has raised significant concerns about public safety and the ability of security forces to manage the widespread disorder.

Risk Categories
Conflict: High Crime: Medium Health and Medical: High Kidnap and Ransom: Medium Personal Safety: Medium Natural and Environment: High Political Overview: Medium Terrorism: High Unrest: High
Recorded Instances of Political Violence and Civil Unrest


The security situation in Mozambique is rapidly deteriorating, with the violent crackdown by security forces on post-election protests likely to have far-reaching implications. The use of excessive force has deepened public resentment and is almost certain to provoke continued unrest, despite opposition leader Venancio Mondlane’s call for a five-day reprieve. The reprieve, while creating space for humanitarian organizations and international bodies to assess human rights abuses, is unlikely to resolve the core grievances. Given the government’s heavy-handed response, it is likely that protests will resume once the temporary pause ends, further destabilizing the political and security landscape. In the near term, the country is likely to experience cycles of violence as both security forces and opposition groups recalibrate their strategies.
The ongoing violence and growing instability have significant medium to long-term implications. The mass prison break, in which approximately 6,000 inmates escaped, underscores the broader security risks, signaling a likely rise in organized criminal activity and further weakening the capacity of authorities to maintain control. With security forces already stretched thin, the probability of more security lapses is high, particularly in the wake of continuing unrest. In the medium to long term, Mozambique faces an almost certain decline in both internal security and foreign investment, with increasing difficulty in maintaining stability in key sectors like energy and transport. Additionally, without effective political resolution or significant international intervention, the risks of a protracted crisis and potential escalation remain high.