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Eigenrac Regional Intelligence Reporting and Analysis

Security Insights – Syria – Dec 2024

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN SYRIA THIS WEEK

Opposition forces capture Damascus: Rebel forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and supported by the Syrian National Army, launched a significant offensive, capturing Damascus and toppling Bashar al-Assad’s government, ending decades of Assad family rule .

Rebel consolidation in Aleppo: Following the capture of Aleppo on December 1, opposition forces have begun consolidating their hold over the city, avoiding reprisals against residents in an effort to gain broader public acceptance.

Risk Categories
Conflict: High Crime: Medium Health and Medical: High Kidnap and Ransom: Medium Unrest: Medium Personal Safety: Medium Natural and Environment: Medium/High Political Overview: Medium Terrorism: High

Russia loses key Syrian assets: Russia’s delayed response to the rebel offensive, hindered by commitments in Africa and Ukraine, led to its loss of control over strategic assets like

VIOLENCE IN THE PAST 5 WEEKS

Analysis Snippet

The fall of Assad’s government marks a transformative moment in Syria’s conflict, with significant security ramifications. Hayat Tahrir al- Sham’s (HTS) dominance introduces fears of extremist rule despite reassurances from leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani about respecting minorities and opposing international jihad.

While Aleppo’s peaceful transition suggests a measured approach, HTS’s terrorist designation and al-Qaeda ties raise alarm about future governance and risks of regional instability. The power vacuum invites external interference, potentially reigniting proxy wars. Internally, the challenge lies in addressing humanitarian crises, rebuilding governance, and managing ethnic tensions. Stabilizing Syria will demand inclusive political solutions and careful international engagement to prevent further fragmentation and ensure long-term security.

Russia’s delayed intervention in Syria, hindered by commitments in Africa and Ukraine, reduced its influence over Assad’s forces. Moscow’s reliance on Turkey for withdrawal strengthens Ankara’s position and highlights its role as NATO’s Russian intermediary. Meanwhile, Russia’s reported loss of control over the Khmeimim airbase and Tartus seaport marks a major setback, while Iran’s claim of pulling all IRGC forces from Syria opens the door for Israeli operations against key military targets. This shift in dynamics could lead to greater instability and further Israeli strikes on strategic sites within Syria.

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