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Eigenrac Regional Intelligence Reporting and Analysis

Security Insights – Ukraine December 2024

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN UKRAINE THIS WEEK

Russian Territorial Gains: Russian forces captured the settlement of Blahodatne in eastern Ukraine and made further territorial gains in areas near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, bringing Russia’s total control of Ukrainian territory to nearly 20%.

Zaporizhzhia Attack: A Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia killed at least 10 people and wounded 24, igniting a car garage and service station.

Ukrainian Drone Attack on Grozny: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov reported that a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny damaged a special police unit’s premises and injured civilians, marking the second such attack on the region.

Risk Categories

Conflict: High Crime: Low Health and Medical: Medium Kidnap and Ransom: Negligible Personal Safety: Medium Natural and Environment: Low Political Overview: High Terrorism: Low Unrest: Medium

POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE PAST 5 WEEKS

Analysis Snippet

The destruction of Ukrainian drones by Russian air defenses highlights a persistent challenge for Ukraine in countering aerial threats, despite its own successful interceptions of Russian drones and missiles. Russia’s territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, including the capture of Blahodatne and Berestky, further consolidate its presence, threatening to undermine Ukraine’s strategic positions in key industrial regions.

The civilian death toll from Russian strikes, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih, exacerbates the humanitarian crisis, while the detention of a 16-year-old for alleged collaboration with Russia underscores growing internal security concerns.

These developments emphasize the urgency for Ukraine to enhance its air defense capabilities and internal security measures while addressing the significant loss of personnel, which complicates prospects for a sustained defensive effort.

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