UNRWA in Lebanon reportedly unaffected by funding cuts and ban: UNRWA’s director in Lebanon, Dorothee Klaus, stated that the agency remains unaffected by the U.S. suspension of funding and Israel’s ban on its operations, as it was already not receiving U.S. aid. While the U.N. is investigating Israeli allegations that some UNRWA staff were involved in the October 7 Hamas attack, Lebanon’s UNRWA office has placed four staff on administrative leave over neutrality concerns. Klaus affirmed that the Israeli ban does not impact UNRWA’s work in Lebanon, where it continues providing essential services to Palestinian refugees.

Recorded Instances of Political Violence and Civil Unrest

Lebanon’s security landscape remains fragile, with a realistic possibility of prolonged instability driven by the delayed Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, ongoing Hezbollah-Israel hostilities, and heightened internal tensions. Hezbollah’s rejection of any extension beyond the ceasefire’s 60-day deadline increases the likelihood of renewed border clashes, particularly as Israeli forces continue operations in the south. The delay, attributed to Israel’s claims that the ceasefire terms have not been fully enforced by Lebanon, fuels perceptions of Israeli rigidity and could provoke escalatory responses from Hezbollah. There is a realistic possibility that Hezbollah will intensify attacks on Israeli positions, using the withdrawal delay as justification. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government’s acceptance of the US-brokered February 18 extension underscores its attempt to balance diplomatic engagement with domestic pressures, but the effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain. The high civilian toll from recent Israeli strikes and the displacement crisis exacerbate Lebanon’s already dire humanitarian situation, further straining state capacity and security institutions.

In the near term, it is likely that Hezbollah will continue to challenge Israel’s presence in southern Lebanon, leading to sporadic cross-border hostilities that risk triggering a wider escalation. There is a realistic possibility that Hezbollah-linked groups could increase attacks targeting Israeli assets, particularly if Israeli forces do not present a clear timeline for withdrawal. Simultaneously, internal security challenges persist, with Lebanon’s fragmented political system and economic deterioration creating fertile ground for civil unrest and militant activity. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), already overstretched, face increasing pressure to manage both internal security and border tensions, raising concerns over their long-term effectiveness. The likely continued impact of international scrutiny on UNRWA and ongoing allegations regarding its staff may also fuel broader instability in Palestinian refugee camps, presenting an additional security risk. In the medium term, Lebanon’s stability will largely depend on whether diplomatic efforts can prevent an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, but absent a definitive withdrawal agreement, the likelihood of prolonged volatility remains high.