Ugandan human rights lawyer tortured and imprisoned: Human rights lawyer Eron Kiiza, representing prominent Ugandan opposition leader Dr. Kizza Besigye, was arrested on January 7, tortured, and sentenced to nine months in prison for contempt of court after being detained without trial. Colleagues reported signs of severe physical and mental abuse, which authorities deny. Rights organizations, including Amnesty International, condemned the case as a violation of Ugandan and international law, citing it as evidence of eroding constitutionalism and increasing repression ahead of upcoming elections.

Recorded Instances of Political Violence and Civil Unrest

The security situation in Uganda remains tense as the legacy of ADF (Allied Democratic Forces) violence lingers, particularly in neighboring North Kivu in the DRC. The “Shujaa” operation, a joint military offensive between Uganda and the DRC, has made significant strides in curbing ADF activities along key commercial routes, providing some stability, especially near the border. However, this improvement is fragile, with Uganda’s military stretched thin and local populations still wary of ADF reprisals. Over the past year, the situation has shifted to a tenuous peace, though the ADF remains a persistent threat, capable of retreating into remote areas to regroup and launch renewed attacks. While civilian life is gradually returning to normal, fears of resurgent violence remain high in the region, particularly with the ADF’s growing association with ISIS, complicating efforts to fully neutralize the group. In the medium-term, Uganda will likely face challenges maintaining its territorial presence and securing long-term stability, with strategic military operations like Shujaa continuing but remaining dependent on international cooperation and local support. Moreover, growing mistrust between Uganda and the DRC over Uganda’s perceived hidden motives could complicate future collaboration. Looking forward, increased attacks and possible shifts in Uganda’s domestic policies could strain resources as the country works to balance internal security concerns and its broader regional influence.

Uganda’s extractive sector is set for significant growth, driven by the start of commercial oil production and the $3.5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline, positioning Uganda as a key player in global markets. Major projects like Tilenga and Kingfisher, alongside investments in renewable energy, will further support this expansion. The mining sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, is attracting growing investment, driven by global demand for green technology minerals. With ongoing regulatory reforms and infrastructure development, Uganda aims to enhance competitiveness, though global commodity price fluctuations and logistical challenges may present risks. The sector’s growth will depend on strategic investments, regional integration, and stakeholder collaboration.

Uganda is facing growing tension ahead of the January 2026 elections, as President Yoweri Museveni seeks a seventh term amid rising opposition and concerns over election- related violence. The government’s history of crackdowns on figures like Bobi Wine and Kizza Besigye has led to fears of further unrest, with human rights organizations warning of potential mass atrocities. As opposition movements, particularly led by Wine, gain momentum, there is a realistic possibility of intensified government repression. With a legacy of using violence to suppress opposition, Museveni’s regime may increase its efforts to maintain control, escalating the risk of widespread unrest and political instability as the election nears.